Introduction
Read as growth rates, the long-range forecasts for secondaries are forecasts of a slowdown. Lazard's interim 2026 secondary market report labels the market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at about 18% from 2018 to 2025 and about 14% on its projection through 2027. The $400 billion by 2030 figure implies roughly 11% to 13% a year from the 2025 record of $220 billion to $240 billion, depending on whose count is the base, and only Coller Capital's call of $500 billion stays near the historical pace. That is not bearish, since 12% a year would add more volume by 2030 than the whole 2021 market. It changes the question from whether a forecast sounds large to which structural drivers must keep working for it to hold.
The Forecasts for 2027 and 2030
Each figure is a forecast on its author's own definition of volume: Lazard's 2027 case grows from its 2025 count of $233 billion, not Evercore's $226 billion or Jefferies' $240 billion.
| Author and date | Horizon | Forecast | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazard, interim report (August 2026) | 2027 | About $305bn; range $290bn to $320bn | Lazard estimates |
| Jefferies, January review (January 2026) | 12 to 24 months | Approaching $300bn a year | Backlog, investor universe, continuation vehicle adoption |
| William Blair, annual report (March 2026) | 2030 | $400bn | Some respondents to its investor survey |
| Verdun Perry, Blackstone (August 2025) | 2030 | $400bn | Interview with Bloomberg |
| Jeremy Coller, Coller Capital (March 2025) | 2030 | $500bn | Founder's projection |
Jefferies' January 2026 review saw line of sight to about $300 billion a year within 12 to 24 months, a window that overlaps Lazard's 2027 case. William Blair's 2026 secondary market report drew its 2030 figure from a survey run between November 2025 and January 2026, against the $220 billion it counted for 2025.
What Each Long-Range Call Assumes
- Lazard: pressure on distributions to paid-in capital (DPI), its respondents' top opportunity, plus growth in deals led by general partners (GPs), with 76% of surveyed investors raising flagship funds.
- Jefferies: companies staying private longer, more investors in secondaries and sponsor adoption of the continuation vehicle (CV).
- William Blair: an ageing pool of private capital, which Preqin forecasts growing from about $20 trillion to $32 trillion between 2025 and 2030, and retail money that will itself need liquidity.
The full-year 2026 calls, published in July and August, are the near end of the curve: Evercore $250 billion to $260 billion, Jefferies about $260 billion, Campbell Lutyens at least $250 billion and Lazard $275 billion. Each needs a second half of roughly $130 billion to $151 billion on its author's count, above the first. Evercore's 2022-2025 average puts 55% of annual volume in the second half, but its 2022 second half was smaller than its first. The first-half figures are in where the secondaries market stands.
The Drivers That Decide Whether the Forecasts Hold
Distributions, Exits and GP-Led Adoption
Supply starts with cash limited partners (LPs) are not receiving. Cash returned to LPs is still scarce: in Jefferies' July 2026 review, distributions ran at about a tenth of portfolio NAV, well under the quarter-of-NAV distribution yield it has averaged since 2001, the shortfall behind the multi-year growth cycle and the rotation in who sells.
The exit window is reopening unevenly: Lazard counts first-half mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of $3.2 trillion, up about 45%, and initial public offering (IPO) proceeds of $205 billion, yet deal count rose about 1% and sponsor-led M&A lagged. Sponsor adoption is already broad, with more than four in five of the largest sponsors having run a CV by Jefferies' count, and Lazard's respondents expect 62% of forward commitments to favor GP-led deals, the shift traced in the GP-led market.
Buyer Capital, Evergreen Flows and New Segments
Buyer capital is the likelier ceiling. Evercore's first-half review has dry powder down to about $194 billion from about $215 billion, roughly one year of volume, against a second-half fundraising target of $154 billion, the gap in the capital wall. Jefferies cut its available-capital expectation from $350 billion to about $300 billion. Evergreen vehicles are the swing source: Evercore expects $11 billion of the next twelve months' inflows at secondary managers to reach secondaries, while Jefferies reports redemptions that led several managers to apply 5% of net asset value (NAV) gates, as evergreen and '40 Act secondaries vehicles explains.
- Redemption Gate
A cap on how much investors in a semi-liquid fund can withdraw in one period, commonly 5% of NAV a quarter, with excess requests prorated or deferred. A gated vehicle usually slows its buying before it sells.
Credit and infrastructure are where forecasters look for new growth: 81% of Lazard's respondents expect private credit secondaries to outgrow other alternative asset classes, as credit, infrastructure, and venture secondaries trends details.
Pricing and the Software Repricing
Pricing decides how much supply trades. Evercore ties a roughly $2 trillion fall in public software value in early 2026 to wider bid-ask spreads, more than a quarter of first-half processes failed or stalled in Lazard's survey, and Evercore does not expect LP-led pricing to strengthen further without a better macro backdrop, the detail in LP-led pricing trends by strategy. Paused deals form a deferred pipeline, likely to return at lower marks.
Rates and Regulation
The rate path turned when the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026. Dearer money raises the cost of acquisition facilities and the discount sellers apply to deferred payments, so pricing feels it first; volume effects are mixed, since exits slow too, as how interest rates drive M&A activity explains.
The Department of Labor (DOL) proposed rule on selecting designated investment alternatives, published March 31, 2026 with comments closed June 1, would give 401(k) fiduciaries who weigh six factors, including liquidity and valuation, a safe harbor.
- Designated Investment Alternative
An investment option that a 401(k) or similar participant-directed plan puts on its menu, chosen by the plan's fiduciaries. The DOL's 2026 proposal concerns how they select such options, including ones with private-market exposure.
A final rule would widen the private wealth channel over years. On governance, the Institutional Limited Partners Association (ILPA) put out draft continuation vehicle guidance in June 2026, with comments closed August 5, 2026; its 30-business-day election period would lengthen CV timetables rather than stop them.
A Scenario Framework for Volume and Pricing
This is an analytical framework, not a forecast: the signal for each driver and the direction volume and LP-led pricing would tend to take.
| Driver | Signal to watch | Volume | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exits | Distribution yield rising; sponsor M&A recovering | Lower LP-led | Firmer |
| GP-led adoption | Repeat CV issuers; final ILPA text | Higher | Par for single assets |
| Buyer capital | Flagship final closes vs targets | Higher | Firmer |
| Evergreen flows | Gates, prorated tenders | Lower | Softer at the top |
| Software | NAV write-downs; paused deals relaunched | Delayed, then higher | Wider on tech books |
| Rates | Further Fed moves | Mixed | Softer for levered bids |
| Regulation | Final DOL rule | Higher over years | Firmer |
Rows combine and can pull against each other, so the net direction for any one sale depends on which driver dominates while its process is live.
How Past Forecasts Fared, and What to Do With the New Ones
Volume forecasts erred low last time. Evercore's surveyed buyers predicted $171 billion for 2025 against the $226 billion Evercore counted; Jefferies opened 2025 at $185 billion and counted $240 billion. The likely mechanism is anchoring: forecasters start from the last tape while new sellers and structures arrive faster.
That is no reason to mark new forecasts up, since the 2025 misses came amid scarce distributions and fast-growing buyer capital. Carry each number with its author, date and base, and attach the driver it needs: Lazard's $305 billion needs buyer capital to keep pace, the 2030 calls an ageing asset base that keeps generating supply after exits recover.
For an advisor, the capital calendar matters more to launch timing than any forecast, because a sale lands inside buyers' fundraising cycles. A candidate's forward view earns credit when it names one forecast precisely, the driver it depends on and the signal that would show it failing: a distribution yield climbing toward 25%, a wave of evergreen gates or a stricter final ILPA text. The signal chosen is the part of the answer an interviewer can test.
