Traditional Media: Broadcasting, Cable Networks, and Publishing

Introduction

Traditional media, encompassing linear broadcast television, cable networks, newspapers, and magazines, occupies a paradoxical position in the TMT landscape: these businesses are in secular decline as audiences and advertising dollars migrate to digital platforms, yet they still generate substantial cash flow and contain some of the most valuable assets in media (particularly sports broadcasting rights). US pay-TV households have declined 35% from approximately 86 million in 2014 to roughly 56 million in 2025, and the pace of cord-cutting is accelerating rather than stabilizing. In May 2025, streaming accounted for 44.8% of total US TV viewership for the first time, surpassing the combined share of cable (24.1%) and broadcast (20.1%). By 2026, over 80 million US households are expected to use non-pay TV services, making cord-cutters and cord-nevers the majority of American viewers. For TMT investment bankers, traditional media creates analytical complexity: how do you value a business whose core revenue stream is declining while it holds assets (sports rights, content libraries, broadcast licenses) that retain or increase in value? The answer lies in sum-of-the-parts analysis, strategic separation, and understanding which traditional media assets have defensible value versus those in terminal decline.

Linear broadcast and cable television generate revenue from two primary sources: advertising and affiliate/carriage fees (the per-subscriber payments that cable and satellite distributors pay to carry a network). Both revenue streams are under structural pressure.

Affiliate Fees and Retransmission Consent

Affiliate fees (also called carriage fees) are monthly per-subscriber payments that cable and satellite operators pay to carry a cable network. ESPN commands the highest affiliate fee at approximately $10 per subscriber per month, while most cable networks receive $0.25-2.00. As pay-TV subscribers decline, total affiliate fee revenue declines proportionally, creating a structural headwind for cable network economics. Retransmission consent is the related mechanism for broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox): broadcasters negotiate payments from cable and satellite operators for the right to carry their over-the-air signal. Retransmission fees have grown significantly over the past decade (from virtually zero to approximately $12-14 billion annually across the industry) and partially offset advertising declines, but they too face pressure as the pay-TV subscriber base shrinks. The decline in both revenue streams creates a compounding effect: fewer subscribers means less affiliate revenue and a smaller audience for advertisers, which reduces advertising rates, which further reduces revenue.

Linear TV advertising revenue is projected to decline from $62.28 billion in 2022 to $53.13 billion by 2027, a nearly $9 billion decrease driven by audience migration to streaming and digital platforms. Advertisers are shifting budgets to digital channels that offer better targeting, measurable outcomes, and access to younger demographics who have largely abandoned linear television. The exception is live sports, which remains the only programming category that consistently delivers large, real-time audiences that cannot be time-shifted.

The cost structure of linear television makes the revenue decline particularly painful. Cable networks carry high fixed costs (programming agreements, production facilities, distribution infrastructure) that cannot be reduced proportionally with declining subscribers. Networks that depend on non-sports programming face a vicious cycle: fewer subscribers reduce revenue, which constrains programming budgets, which reduces content quality and viewer engagement, which accelerates subscriber loss. This dynamic explains why traditional media companies have aggressively launched streaming platforms to capture the audiences migrating from linear, though the transition involves cannibalizing their own legacy revenue streams in the near term.

Sports broadcasting rights are the most valuable content asset in traditional media and the primary reason linear television remains economically relevant. US TV and streaming sports media rights payments totaled $29.25 billion in 2025, more than double the $14.64 billion paid in 2015, and are projected to reach $37 billion by 2030.

The NBA signed new 11-year media rights agreements in July 2024 with ESPN/ABC, NBC Sports, and Amazon Prime Video, beginning in the 2025-26 season. ESPN/ABC's NBA deal is valued at approximately $2.62 billion per year. The inclusion of Amazon alongside traditional broadcasters confirms that sports rights are migrating to streaming platforms, though the economics still depend heavily on linear distribution's ability to deliver large live audiences. European football (the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Champions League) follows a similar pattern, with rights values escalating as streaming platforms compete against traditional broadcasters for distribution. The Premier League's domestic broadcasting rights deal (2025-2029) was valued at approximately $8 billion, a significant increase over the prior cycle, with Sky Sports, TNT Sports, and Amazon Prime all holding packages.

Print publishing faces the most severe secular decline of any traditional media segment. Newspaper advertising revenue has collapsed from approximately $50 billion in 2005 to below $10 billion, and print circulation continues to decline annually. The industry has bifurcated between a small number of premium brands that have successfully transitioned to digital subscription models and the vast majority of publications that face ongoing revenue decline.