Where the ECM Market Stands: 2025 Recap and 2026 Activity

Introduction

Global ECM markets closed 2025 with $997.6 billion of issuance in Dealogic's full-year count, the strongest year since 2021. IPO activity reopened in the US, Hong Kong reclaimed the global listings crown, and convertibles became a core funding tool for the AI build-out. Then 2026 moved into a different league. The market passed $1 trillion in nine months for only the second time on record: Dealogic's nine-month 2026 data show $1,084.4 billion across 5,566 deals, up 52.6 percent, carried by a handful of AI-linked megadeals led by SpaceX's record IPO. The third quarter then turned: a Fed rate hike, the highest bond yields in almost two decades and the approaching US midterms shut the IPO window in September.

This article covers the 2025 baseline, the 2026 tape and its turn, and what both mean for ECM franchises; the deal-level stories sit in the 2026 mega-IPO pipeline.

Dealogic gives the clearest single picture of 2025, but its numbers come in layers that are worth keeping apart: a headline count, regional totals and bookrunner league tables.

Global Volumes by Product

Dealogic's bookrunner league tables for 2025, compiled at the start of January 2026, split the year's credited volume by product:

The league-table total counts only deals that carry bookrunner credit, so it sits below Dealogic's headline count of $997.6 billion for the year. IPOs were less than a quarter of credited volume even in a reopening year, so follow-ons and blocks still kept ECM desks busiest, while equity-linked issuance nearly matched IPOs in dollars on less than a third of the deal count.

ECM Volume Mix

The breakdown of total equity capital markets issuance across product categories: IPOs, follow-ons (marketed offerings and overnight block trades by companies or selling shareholders) and equity-linked instruments such as convertibles. The mix shifts with the cycle: when the IPO window is shut, follow-ons and blocks dominate because they need no new listing, and when it reopens the IPO share rises. Because fees per dollar differ by product, the mix tells a bank where its ECM revenue comes from, not just how much volume it underwrote.

Regional Volumes

The regional split comes from Dealogic's year-end report, published on December 22, 2025, before the last days of the year were counted; its global total then stood at $957.2 billion, 25 percent above 2024. The regional proportions, more than the exact totals, are the useful part:

Within APAC, Dealogic's North Asia region (anchored by mainland China and Hong Kong) raised $168.4 billion, up 86 percent, the fastest growth of any region in its full-year 2025 rankings. APAC equity-linked (convertibles plus mandatory) reached $33 billion with Hong Kong and China accounting for 64 percent of regional activity.

APAC Equity Capital Markets

The Asia-Pacific equity capital markets, anchored by Hong Kong (HKEX), Mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen), Japan (TSE), Singapore (SGX), Korea (KRX), Taiwan, and Australia (ASX). 2025 APAC ECM volume reached about $309 billion in Dealogic's year-end count (up 29 percent), with North Asia, led by Hong Kong and mainland China, supplying most of the growth. The regional market has emerged as one of the structural growth engines of global ECM, with the A+H listing pattern, cornerstone investor framework, and HKEX's August 2025 reforms providing distinctive infrastructure that the US and European markets do not directly replicate.

Hong Kong's Year as Global #1

Hong Kong/HKEX captured the global #1 IPO ranking in 2025 for the first time since 2019, displacing NYSE and Nasdaq through the surge in A+H listings (Chinese A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong) and the cornerstone-investor revival that drew BlackRock, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, and Fidelity back into HKEX cornerstone books. Hong Kong follow-on fundraising of $66 billion plus $20 billion of equity-linked issuance also represented record levels.

Three structural forces shaped 2025 ECM activity.

The IPO Market Reopening

After three difficult years (2022, 2023, 2024) of compressed IPO activity driven by rate volatility, sponsor backlog accumulation, and post-COVID multiple compression, the IPO market reopened materially in 2025. The reopening was driven by stabilizing equity multiples, sponsor pressure to exit aging portfolios, and the AI capex theme that produced flagship technology IPOs (CoreWeave at a roughly $23 billion valuation, Klarna, Figma, Bullish, Circle Internet) plus a deep follow-on cohort. In the US, Renaissance Capital counted 202 IPOs raising $44.0 billion, a four-year high, and its 2025 annual review put the average first-day return at 19.7 percent across all IPOs and 25 percent for the $100 million-plus group.

The Convertible Market Revival

Dealogic credited $171.6 billion of global equity-linked issuance in 2025, more than half of it ($97.0 billion) from US issuers. The revival was driven by AI capex funding (CoreWeave's December 2025 $2.25 billion convertible at 1.75 percent coupon, plus similar deals from other hyperscalers), refinancing of COVID-era convertible debt coming due in 2025-2027, and the structural appeal of low-coupon equity-linked capital in the higher-rate environment.

The Cornerstone Investor Resurgence

The 2025 HKEX surge was substantially driven by major global cornerstone investors returning to Hong Kong listings. BlackRock, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, and Fidelity reanchored HKEX cornerstone books, with cornerstone investments rising to HK$74.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 (a 365 percent year-over-year increase from HK$15.9 billion in the same period of 2024). The HKEX August 2025 reforms (capping cornerstone tranche at 50-55 percent and retaining the six-month lockup) provided regulatory clarity that supported the institutional return.

The 2026 market did not look like the broad-based recovery of 2025. Volume exploded while deal count fell, because a handful of AI-linked megadeals absorbed an unprecedented share of the capital. Dealogic's first-half 2026 review already showed $729.4 billion of issuance, up 73.1 percent and second only to the first half of 2021, with technology supplying 41.4 percent once SpaceX was included.

Nine Months in Numbers

Dealogic's nine-month count reached $1,084.4 billion across 5,566 deals, up 52.6 percent and already above every full year from 2022 to 2025. The third quarter alone raised $342.8 billion from 1,774 deals, against 2,171 deals a year earlier: fewer, larger transactions. Technology supplied roughly half of Q3 volume, the highest single-sector share for any quarter on record, with AI infrastructure the main driver. The regions split three ways:

The Defining Deals

Four transactions, all raising money for the AI build-out, explain much of the year's headline:

SpaceX priced at $135 a share, a base deal of about $75 billion that reached $86.2 billion once the over-allotment option is counted. SK hynix sold 177.9 million ADRs at $149; because it already trades in Seoul, Dealogic files it as a secondary listing, while Renaissance Capital counts it as a US IPO. Intel and Alibaba sold new shares, Alibaba through an overnight deal. Four AI-linked issuers raising more than $145 billion between them is the record's concentration risk.

Convertibles: A Record Year in Equity-Linked

Convertibles kept pace with the equity megadeals. US-listed companies had raised $131 billion in convertibles by early September, a record annual total in Bloomberg's data and well beyond the $80 to $100 billion RBC had forecast for the full year. AI capex again drove the supply; the 2026 convertible record covers how the mandatory convertible returned at scale.

Sponsor Exits Follow the Window

Sponsor exits tracked the IPO window rather than the calendar. Renaissance Capital counted five PE-backed US IPOs in Q1, 22 raising $15.7 billion in Q2 and eight in Q3, when PE-backed proceeds outside SK hynix came to only $3.2 billion. The sponsor IPO backlog therefore still overhangs the market, which keeps dual-track processes and continuation vehicles in heavy use for large sponsor assets.

Europe Lags the Megadeal Wave

EMEA is where 2026 disappointed. In its weakest quarter of the year, France led European exchanges with only $3.6 billion, about 1 percent of global issuance. The UK Listing Rules reform and EU Listing Act of 2024-2025 were designed to win back mandates that might otherwise default to NYSE or Nasdaq, but the AI megadeals ran through New York, Hong Kong and mainland China, so the payoff of European listing reform still depends on deepening European institutional demand.

The tape changed in September. Dealogic's global IPO volume fell to $53.7 billion in Q3, down 8.1 percent year on year, and the US calendar thinned sharply: Renaissance Capital's 3Q 2026 review counted 30 US IPOs raising $32.8 billion, only $6.2 billion excluding SK hynix, after a string of postponements near quarter end. Smart-ring maker Oura pulled a $2.1 billion offering citing IPO market uncertainty, SB Energy delayed its deal, the quarter's IPOs averaged a flat return, and the Renaissance IPO Index fell 11.5 percent while the S&P 500 gained 2.3 percent.

The trigger was rates. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00 percent on September 16, 2026, saying inflation remained elevated, and Renaissance pointed to a 19-year high in bond yields alongside renewed doubts about AI spending. Dealogic adds the US midterm elections: issuers have largely held off, and it expects the window to stay shut until the results are clear, reopening in late November or early December if markets hold steady.

The turn did not undo the record; it exposed how much the broad IPO market depended on AI sentiment and rates. The 2025 post-IPO bloodletting pattern (11 of the 20 largest IPOs falling 40 percent or more from their intraday highs by year-end) is the risk that returns whenever recent deals trade poorly.

The 2025 cycle did not unfold uniformly, and its quarterly rhythm explains the setup 2026 inherited.

Q1 2025: Cautious Opening

Q1 opened slowly, with tariff uncertainty and macro volatility keeping issuers cautious despite the broader market reopening narrative.

Q2 2025: Acceleration Begins

Q2 saw acceleration as macro stabilized and the AI capex theme drew issuance attention. Hong Kong A+H listings began to gather pace. Convertible activity built materially with continued AI-driven hyperscaler issuance. European convertible volume surged 231 percent year-over-year (from $1.6 billion in Q2 2024 to $5.3 billion in Q2 2025), illustrating the mid-year acceleration.

Q3 2025: Peak Activity Window

Q3 was the year's most active window, with multiple flagship IPOs (Klarna, Bullish, Circle Internet, Figma) pricing at outsized first-day pops. APAC ECM gained substantially with major Hong Kong listings; cornerstone investor activity accelerated. North America accounted for 70+ percent of Q3 2025 global convertible volume.

Q4 2025: Federal Shutdown Disruption

Q4 was disrupted by the federal shutdown, which paused SEC review processes for weeks and pushed several Q4 2025 IPOs into Q1 2026. Medline still priced the year's largest IPO in December, and the delayed deals cleared in early 2026; the federal shutdown effect covers the backlog in detail.

The 2025 ECM sector mix reflected the year's specific drivers.

Technology Dominance

Technology issuers (broadly defined to include AI infrastructure, software, fintech, and crypto) led 2025 ECM activity. The 80 percent of 2025 IPOs above $1 billion market cap at pricing skewed heavily toward technology. The sector concentration only deepened in 2026, when technology supplied about half of Dealogic's third-quarter volume, a quarterly record.

Healthcare Innovation

Healthcare and biotech issuers accounted for a meaningful share of 2025 IPO volume, with biotech-specific PIPE activity supporting pre-IPO and post-IPO clinical-trial funding. The crossover-investor universe (RA Capital, Perceptive, Baker Brothers) anchored multiple healthcare deals.

Financial Services Recovery

Financial services issuers (banks, insurance, asset managers) saw selective but meaningful 2025 activity, with crypto-platform IPOs (Circle, Bullish, eToro) representing a distinctive 2025 sub-segment.

Consumer and Industrial Selectivity

Consumer and industrial IPOs faced more selectivity than premium technology and healthcare deals, with mid-market issuers facing wider discounts and several deals pricing below indicated ranges. The K-shaped pattern (premium quality vs. broader market) was particularly visible in these sectors.

The 2025 ECM cycle produced specific bank-by-bank franchise outcomes that set up 2026 mandate competition, and Dealogic's full-year 2025 rankings give the cleanest comparison.

JPMorgan Overall Leadership

JPMorgan led 2025 global ECM bookrunner volume with $74.5 billion across 339 deals (9.2 percent share) and topped the ECM revenue ranking at $1.49 billion. JPMorgan's overall investment banking fee revenue reached $7.29 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 12 percent year-over-year, reflecting strong execution across IPO, follow-on, and convertible products.

Morgan Stanley APAC Strength

Morgan Stanley ranked second with $68.6 billion (8.5 percent share) and $1.43 billion of ECM revenue, and it led global equity-linked bookrunning with $19.2 billion. It also led APAC ECM in Q3 2025. Morgan Stanley's IB revenues of $5.21 billion in the first nine months of 2025 (up 15 percent year-over-year) reflected the bank's franchise strength in cross-border China-related deals and premium technology IPOs.

Goldman Sachs Premier Franchise

Goldman Sachs finished a close third with $68.0 billion (8.4 percent share) and $1.28 billion of ECM revenue. Goldman maintained its traditional premier-franchise positioning with strong representation across the year's largest deals (CoreWeave, Figma, Medline, multiple healthcare deals).

Other Major Players

BofA Securities ($46.5 billion) and Citi ($39.9 billion) completed the top five, followed by UBS, Jefferies, Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald and BNP Paribas. Cantor Fitzgerald topped the global IPO bookrunner table with $8.6 billion, largely on the SPAC revival, a reminder that league-table leadership depends on which product is ranked. UBS led APAC follow-on activity in Q1 2026 with $2.86 billion. Mid-market specialists (Jefferies, William Blair, Stifel) led their respective sub-segments.

Q1 2026 Early Read

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan topped the first-quarter 2026 rankings for revenue from leading deals including IPOs and share sales, with $535 million and $472 million respectively.

Putting 2025 and 2026 in historical context shows how unusual the current cycle's shape is.

vs 2021 Bubble Peak

2021 remains the record year, a structural high driven by SPAC volume, ultra-low rates and post-COVID liquidity: Dealogic counted $1.26 trillion in its first nine months alone. 2025's $997.6 billion full year sits below that nine-month mark, but it was achieved in a materially less frothy environment with more disciplined issuer pricing.

vs 2022-2024 Trough

The 2022 trough came as rate volatility and post-COVID multiple compression closed the IPO window. The recovery was gradual: Dealogic's year-end comparison shows $616 billion in 2023 and $765.3 billion in 2024, and 2025 then cleared 2024 by about a quarter even before the final count.

Where 2026 Is Landing

Dealogic expects 2026 to finish second only to 2021, a ranking it attributes to issuance concentrating in technology rather than a broad 2021-style recovery. How close the year gets to the record depends on whether the window reopens in the fourth quarter and on the AI listings still in the pipeline.

ECM bankers facing the 2026 mandate landscape should focus on specific franchise-building activities.

Mega-IPO Bake-Off Preparation

Banks competing for OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and other mega-IPO mandates need substantial pre-mandate work: peer-set development, valuation framework, investor-targeting analysis, distribution capacity demonstration, and league-table positioning. Banks with multi-year relationships with the issuer's leadership are positioned best. With SpaceX's league-table credit banked, the competition has moved to the AI listings behind it, with Renaissance expecting Anthropic to headline the fourth quarter and OpenAI waiting until 2027 to list.

Convertible Franchise Expansion

The 2026 convertible record supports building convertible franchise depth (equity-linked structuring capability, convertible arbitrage relationships, call-spread overlay execution). Banks competing for convertible mandates need fluency across the full equity-linked toolkit and the relationships across the convertible buyer universe.

Sponsor Coverage Investment

The sponsor exit wave creates sustained demand for sponsor coverage banking. With PE-backed IPOs stalling again in the third quarter, banks expanding sponsor coverage are positioning for multi-year mandate flow as sponsors work through portfolio aging.

Cross-Border and Cornerstone Capability

The HKEX surge and continued APAC ECM growth support investing in cross-border capability and cornerstone investor relationships (GIC, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, BlackRock global teams). Banks with deep APAC presence and cornerstone access are differentiated. Cross-border A+H listing capabilities specifically remain a structural differentiator as Mainland China issuers continue to seek Hong Kong dual listings to access international institutional capital. SK hynix's US ADR listing ran the same capability in the other direction, bringing an Asian champion to US investors; cross-border listings covers the structures.

Convertible Refinancing Pipeline

Part of the convertible flow through 2027 is refinancing of COVID-era convertibles coming due in 2026 and 2027. Many were issued at near-zero coupons with high conversion premiums, so refinancing them after the Fed's return to rate hikes rewards banks with deep structuring capability and active relationships across the issuer base.

The 2025 recap and 2026 tape above provide the macro context for the rest of this section, which goes deeper on the 2025 US IPO market, the 2024-2025 convertible boom, the Hong Kong surge, A+H listings, and listing venue choice.