Where the ECM Market Stands: 2025 Recap and 2026 Activity

Introduction

Global ECM markets concluded 2025 with USD 957 billion of total issuance, a 25 percent increase from USD 765 billion in 2024 and the strongest year since 2021. The recovery was broad-based across regions and products, but with material variation: IPO activity surged 44 percent globally, convertibles climbed 35 percent (40 percent in the US), and the previously dominant follow-on and block trade products declined approximately 10 percent as the issuance mix shifted back toward primary capital and equity-linked structures. Regional dynamics also reshaped: Americas led the year with USD 472.7 billion (up 28.8 percent), but Asia-Pacific's USD 309 billion (up 29 percent) was the fastest-growing region, with Hong Kong/China specifically contributing approximately USD 169 billion that rebuilt APAC's regional standing. Europe's EMEA region saw more modest 10 percent growth to USD 175.5 billion. Heading into 2026, the structural setup is exceptionally favorable: a deep backlog of mega-IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Cerebras), continued convertible momentum, sponsor exit pressure on aging portfolios, and bifurcation between premium issuers commanding tight pricing and the broader market facing more selectivity. A SpaceX June 2026 roadshow with 21 banks on the cover, OpenAI and Anthropic following through Q3-Q4, and approximately $80-100 billion of US convertible issuance expected on top: that pipeline is what every ECM mandate conversation in 2026 sits on top of, and the 2025 recap is the baseline against which every bank's 2026 franchise-building plan gets measured.

The headline data captures the year's broad recovery and the specific drivers.

Global Volumes by Product

The 2025 product mix illustrates the rotation back to primary issuance and equity-linked structures:

The pattern reflects the IPO market reopening (after 2022-2024's compressed activity) plus the convertible market's structural revival driven by AI capex funding and refinancing of COVID-era convertible debt. Follow-ons and blocks declined in relative share but remained substantial in absolute terms.

ECM Volume Mix

The breakdown of total equity capital markets issuance across product categories: IPOs (initial public offerings), follow-ons (post-IPO equity offerings), block trades (single-clip overnight transactions), and convertibles (equity-linked debt instruments). Volume mix shifts cyclically: 2022-2024 saw follow-ons and blocks dominate as IPO activity compressed; 2025 saw IPOs (+44%) and convertibles (+35-40%) surge while follow-ons and blocks declined modestly. The product mix shifts inform which ECM products generate the most fee revenue and where banks should focus franchise-building activities.

Regional Volumes

Within APAC, Hong Kong-China specifically contributed approximately USD 169 billion, a substantial share of regional activity. APAC equity-linked (convertibles plus mandatory) reached $33 billion with Hong Kong and China accounting for 64 percent of regional activity.

APAC Equity Capital Markets

The Asia-Pacific equity capital markets, anchored by Hong Kong (HKEX), Mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen), Japan (TSE), Singapore (SGX), Korea (KRX), Taiwan, and Australia (ASX). 2025 APAC ECM volumes reached approximately USD 309 to 334 billion (29 percent year-over-year growth), with Hong Kong-China contributing approximately USD 169 billion and accounting for the bulk of regional issuance growth. APAC equity-linked specifically reached USD 33 billion with Hong Kong and China at 64 percent of regional activity. The regional market has emerged as one of the structural growth engines of global ECM, with the A+H listing pattern, cornerstone investor framework, and HKEX's August 2025 reforms providing distinctive infrastructure that the US and European markets do not directly replicate.

Hong Kong's Year as Global #1

Hong Kong/HKEX captured the global #1 IPO ranking in 2025 for the first time since 2019, displacing NYSE and Nasdaq through the surge in A+H listings (Chinese A-share companies dual-listing in Hong Kong) and the cornerstone-investor revival that drew BlackRock, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, and Fidelity back into HKEX cornerstone books. Hong Kong follow-on fundraising of $66 billion plus $20 billion of equity-linked issuance also represented record levels.

Three structural forces shaped 2025 ECM activity.

The IPO Market Reopening

After three difficult years (2022, 2023, 2024) of compressed IPO activity driven by rate volatility, sponsor backlog accumulation, and post-COVID multiple compression, the IPO market reopened materially in 2025. The reopening was driven by stabilizing equity multiples, sponsor pressure to exit aging portfolios, and the AI capex theme that produced flagship technology IPOs (CoreWeave at $23 billion, Klarna, Figma, Bullish, Circle Internet) plus a deep follow-on cohort. Average first-day pop reached approximately 22 percent (median 13 percent), with the 20 largest 2025 IPOs averaging 36 percent first-day gains.

The Convertible Market Revival

Global convertible issuance reached approximately $167 billion in 2025, a 24-year high. The revival was driven by AI capex funding (CoreWeave's December 2025 $2.25 billion convertible at 1.75 percent coupon, plus similar deals from other hyperscalers), refinancing of COVID-era convertible debt coming due in 2025-2027, and the structural appeal of low-coupon equity-linked capital in the higher-rate environment. APAC equity-linked grew sharply, with Hong Kong and China accounting for 64 percent of regional activity.

The Cornerstone Investor Resurgence

The 2025 HKEX surge was substantially driven by major global cornerstone investors returning to Hong Kong listings. BlackRock, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, and Fidelity reanchored HKEX cornerstone books, with cornerstone investments rising to HK$74.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 (a 365 percent year-over-year increase from HK$15.9 billion in the same period of 2024). The HKEX August 2025 reforms (capping cornerstone tranche at 50-55 percent and retaining the six-month lockup) provided regulatory clarity that supported the institutional return.

The 2026 ECM market enters with structural tailwinds, deep pipeline, and recurring risks.

The Mega-IPO Pipeline

The 2026 mega-IPO pipeline is one of the deepest in modern ECM history. SpaceX is targeting an early-June 2026 roadshow with approximately 21 banks on the deal and 125 financial analysts scheduled to meet the company. OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Cerebras, Stripe (potentially), and Kraken (filed for $20 billion+ listing) collectively represent multi-hundred-billion-dollar potential 2026 IPO volume that would substantially exceed 2025's pace. The mega-IPO pipeline's depth is structurally bullish for 2026 ECM volumes, fees, and league-table competition.

Convertible Continuation

RBC forecasts $80 to $100 billion of US convertible issuance in 2026, slightly below 2025's record but still extremely elevated. Drivers include continued AI capex, refinancing of remaining COVID-era convertibles, and the rate environment supporting the convertible's structural advantage over straight high-yield debt. The convertible market's broad sector appeal is expected to continue, with both technology and non-technology issuers tapping the product.

Sponsor Exit Pressure

Sponsor portfolios continue to age, with build-up of vintage assets driving exit pressure throughout 2026. Sponsors are balancing outright disposals (M&A and IPO exits) with structured exits (sell-downs, continuation vehicles), and dual-track and triple-track processes are expected to increase materially as sponsors seek liquidity in the more favorable macro environment.

European and UK Reform

The UK Listing Rules reform and EU Listing Act both took effect in 2024-2025 and are expected to support continued European ECM activity in 2026, particularly as the LSE and Euronext venues compete for issuer mandates that historically might have defaulted to NYSE or Nasdaq. The reforms are a direct response to the multi-year decline in London IPO activity and the migration of European issuers toward US listings; the early evidence suggests the reforms have improved Europe's competitive positioning for selected issuer profiles, though the structural deepening of European institutional demand remains a longer-term project.

Sustainability-Linked and ESG Activity

ESG-aligned ECM activity continued in 2025 with several issuers tapping sustainability-linked convertibles and green bonds. Schneider Electric's first sustainability-linked convertible has served as a template for subsequent European issuers, and the broader sustainability-linked bond market reached approximately $35 billion annually with the convertible share growing. The 2026 outlook includes continued ESG-aligned issuance as European issuers in particular align capital-markets activity with formal sustainability commitments.

Risks to the Outlook

Recurring risks include macro volatility (rate cuts and inflation surprises affecting equity multiples), geopolitical events (trade tensions, election outcomes affecting sentiment), the possibility of a renewed federal shutdown affecting SEC review processes, and execution risk on individual mega-IPOs that could chill broader sentiment if early 2026 deals trade poorly. The post-IPO bloodletting pattern visible across multiple 2025 deals (11 of 20 largest IPOs falling 40+ percent from intraday highs by year-end) is a meaningful tail risk: a similar pattern early in 2026 could damage broader IPO market sentiment for the year.

The 2025 ECM cycle did not unfold uniformly across the year. Understanding the quarterly rhythm matters for ECM bankers reading the 2026 setup.

Q1 2025: Cautious Opening

Q1 opened slowly with tariff uncertainty and macro volatility lowering proceeds. Q1 2025 US IPO volumes ran below comparable Q1 2024 levels despite the broader market reopening narrative, reflecting the early-year hesitation. Tech IPOs raised approximately $3.55 billion through midyear, just above H1 2024.

Q2 2025: Acceleration Begins

Q2 saw acceleration as macro stabilized and the AI capex theme drew issuance attention. Hong Kong A+H listings began to gather pace. Convertible activity built materially with continued AI-driven hyperscaler issuance. European convertible volume surged 231 percent year-over-year (from $1.6 billion in Q2 2024 to $5.3 billion in Q2 2025), illustrating the mid-year acceleration.

Q3 2025: Peak Activity Window

Q3 was the year's most active window, with multiple flagship IPOs (Klarna, Bullish, Circle Internet, Figma) pricing at outsized first-day pops. APAC ECM gained substantially with major Hong Kong listings; cornerstone investor activity accelerated. North America accounted for 70+ percent of Q3 2025 global convertible volume.

Q4 2025: Federal Shutdown Disruption

Q4 was disrupted by the federal shutdown, which paused SEC review processes for weeks and pushed several Q4 2025 IPOs into Q1 2026. The shutdown's effect was specifically visible in the IPO pipeline: deal pushback created a denser-than-usual Q1 2026 calendar that ECM bankers are now navigating.

The 2025 ECM sector mix reflected the year's specific drivers.

Technology Dominance

Technology issuers (broadly defined to include AI infrastructure, software, fintech, and crypto) led 2025 ECM activity. The 80 percent of 2025 IPOs above $1 billion market cap at pricing skewed heavily toward technology, with average deal size around $4 billion.

Healthcare Innovation

Healthcare and biotech issuers accounted for a meaningful share of 2025 IPO volume, with biotech-specific PIPE activity supporting pre-IPO and post-IPO clinical-trial funding. The crossover-investor universe (RA Capital, Perceptive, Baker Brothers) anchored multiple healthcare deals.

Financial Services Recovery

Financial services issuers (banks, insurance, asset managers) saw selective but meaningful 2025 activity, with crypto-platform IPOs (Circle, Bullish, eToro) representing a distinctive 2025 sub-segment.

Consumer and Industrial Selectivity

Consumer and industrial IPOs faced more selectivity than premium technology and healthcare deals, with mid-market issuers facing wider discounts and several deals pricing below indicated ranges. The K-shaped pattern (premium quality vs. broader market) was particularly visible in these sectors.

The 2025 ECM cycle produced specific bank-by-bank franchise outcomes that set up 2026 mandate competition.

JPMorgan Overall Leadership

JPMorgan led 2025 ECM bookrunner activity in developed markets with $44.1 billion of underwriting volume (9.61 percent market share through 2026 YTD). JPMorgan's overall investment banking fee revenue reached $7.29 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 12 percent year-over-year, reflecting strong execution across IPO, follow-on, and convertible products.

Goldman Sachs Premier Franchise

Goldman Sachs followed at $37.4 billion of developed-market ECM volume (8.16 percent market share). Goldman maintained its traditional premier-franchise positioning with strong representation across the year's largest deals (CoreWeave, Figma, Medline, multiple healthcare deals) and approximately $8.9 billion in 2025 ECM fees overall.

Morgan Stanley APAC Strength

Morgan Stanley managed $31.7 billion of developed-market ECM volume (6.92 percent market share) and led APAC ECM in Q3 2025. Morgan Stanley's IB revenues of $5.21 billion in the first nine months of 2025 (up 15 percent year-over-year) reflected the bank's franchise strength in cross-border China-related deals and premium technology IPOs.

Other Major Players

UBS, BofA, Citi, and Barclays rounded out the top tier with each capturing meaningful share through specific franchise strengths. UBS led APAC follow-on activity in Q1 2026 with $2.86 billion. Mid-market specialists (Jefferies, William Blair, Stifel) led their respective sub-segments.

Q1 2026 Early Read

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan topped the first-quarter 2026 rankings for revenue from leading deals including IPOs and share sales, with $535 million and $472 million respectively. Growth in follow-ons and convertible bonds contributed to strong equity underwriting revenue increases entering 2026.

Putting 2025 in historical context illuminates the structural setup heading into 2026.

vs 2021 Bubble Peak

The 2021 ECM peak produced approximately USD 1.4 trillion of global issuance, a structural high driven by SPAC volume, ultra-low rates, and post-COVID liquidity. 2025's USD 957 billion is roughly two-thirds of the 2021 peak but achieved in a materially less frothy environment with more disciplined issuer pricing.

vs 2022-2024 Trough

The 2022 ECM trough fell to approximately USD 580 billion as rate volatility and post-COVID multiple compression closed the IPO window. 2023-2024 saw modest recovery with 2024 ending at USD 765 billion. The 2025 USD 957 billion represents a 25 percent recovery from 2024 and approximately 65 percent above the 2022 trough.

Where 2026 Is Likely to Land

Most major bank forecasts position 2026 ECM volumes at or modestly above 2025 levels (USD 950 billion to USD 1.1 trillion range), with the upside scenario depending heavily on whether the mega-IPO pipeline executes cleanly. A clean SpaceX / OpenAI / Anthropic / Databricks pricing run could produce one of the larger ECM volume years on record; a stumble on the early mega-IPOs could compress 2026 toward the lower end of the forecast range.

ECM bankers facing the 2026 mandate landscape should focus on specific franchise-building activities.

Mega-IPO Bake-Off Preparation

Banks competing for SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and other mega-IPO mandates need substantial pre-mandate work: peer-set development, valuation framework, investor-targeting analysis, distribution capacity demonstration, and league-table positioning. Banks that have built relationships with the issuer's leadership over multiple years are positioned best. SpaceX has already locked in its bookrunner panel of approximately 21 banks for the contemplated June roadshow, and the OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks bake-offs will be among the most contested of the year.

Convertible Franchise Expansion

The continued convertible market growth supports building convertible franchise depth (equity-linked structuring capability, convertible arbitrage relationships, call-spread overlay execution). Banks competing for convertible mandates need fluency across the full equity-linked toolkit and the relationships across the convertible buyer universe.

Sponsor Coverage Investment

The sponsor exit wave creates sustained demand for sponsor coverage banking. Banks expanding sponsor coverage in 2026 are positioning for multi-year mandate flow as sponsors work through portfolio aging.

Cross-Border and Cornerstone Capability

The HKEX surge and continued APAC ECM growth support investing in cross-border capability and cornerstone investor relationships (GIC, Temasek, QIA, Mubadala, BlackRock global teams). Banks with deep APAC presence and cornerstone access are differentiated. Cross-border A+H listing capabilities specifically remain a structural differentiator as Mainland China issuers continue to seek Hong Kong dual listings to access international institutional capital.

Convertible Refinancing Pipeline

A meaningful share of 2026 convertible activity will be refinancing of COVID-era convertibles coming due in 2026 and 2027. Banks with deep convertible structuring capability plus active relationships with the convertible issuer base are positioned to capture this refinancing flow. The structural opportunity is large: many COVID-era convertibles were issued at near-zero coupons with high conversion premiums, and the refinancing into the current environment requires expert structuring to manage the transition.

The 2025 recap and 2026 outlook above provide the macro context for the remaining articles in this section, which dive into specific 2025 phenomena (the US IPO market detail, the federal shutdown effect, the mega-IPO pipeline, the convertible boom, the Hong Kong surge, A+H listings, European listing reform, cross-border listings, and listing venue choice).